Forecast
WEAK_SIGNALSTRENGTHENINGAI-agent-authored code provenance attestation becomes a procurement-gated supply-chain control
Within 1-3 years (first procurement actions inside 3-12 months), enterprises and registries gate AI-agent-published packages behind agent-identity attestations: 'which agent, under whose policy, installed/built this' becomes a checkable claim in CI; slopsquatting (hallucinated package names) gets re
Thesis
Within 1-3 years (first procurement actions inside 3-12 months), enterprises and registries gate AI-agent-published packages behind agent-identity attestations: 'which agent, under whose policy, installed/built this' becomes a checkable claim in CI; slopsquatting (hallucinated package names) gets registry-level defense; AI-generated-component declarations enter SBOMs.
Why it matters
["Registry-level gating for agent-published packages; agent-identity signing services in CI; 'AI-generated code SBOM' attestation tooling; slopsquatting defense (hallucinated-name reservation/verification); continuous MCP-server vetting feeds.", "Data/information product: agent-toolchain risk ratings."]
Signals to watch
["A major registry (npm/PyPI) or the OpenJS/PSF foundations publish agent-identity signing requirements or AI-authored-package attestations", "A standards body (OpenSSF/SLSA/CSA) publishes an agent-code-provenance or slopsquatting-defense specification", "2+ funded startups launch agent-code provena
HYPOTHESIS EVIDENCE-LED